Last week’s picks were a carefree 2-1, mainly because all three games were decided long before the final whistle. There were no anxious moments or worries about a backdoor cover. Notre Dame and Louisville ended up winning handily, and Tennessee was dead from the moment it took the field in Knoxville. You could argue that Will Levis never left the team bus.
Much like in Week 9, there are plenty of betting options in Week 10, not the least of which are a handful of monster matchups that will reshape the 2022 college football season as we know it. Ho hum.
Let’s go 3-0.
North Carolina -7 @ Virginia
I’ll take “Point Spreads I Don’t Understand” for $500, Alex!
With an over/under of 61 points, Vegas is expecting UNC to win this game by a 34-27 margin. That’s interesting given that UVA hasn’t scored more than 20 points against any Power 5 team this year. Maybe the Hoos will have better luck against Carolina’s 103rd best defense (according to the SP+)?
To be blunt, I’m not buying it. Virginia’s offense is genuinely bad and has underperformed projections in EVERY game this season. Also, the North Carolina defense has improved significantly since the start of October.
I’m on the Tar Heels because I don’t think Virginia can score enough points to keep this one within the number.
Bet UNC -7
Penn State -14 @ Indiana
I’m desperate to see Drew Allar start at quarterback for the Nittany Lions, and most of the Penn State fan base is as well. James Franklin, of course, stopped short of naming his QB1 for this weekend’s tilt in Bloomington. Though a road game is not the best place to break in a new starter, I believe now is the time to make the move, given that next week’s home spot against Maryland could be potentially tricky. Just start the process now.
The Hoosiers lost five in a row before taking a week to catch their breath in Week 9. Their remaining schedule features four more games they’re projected to lose against Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Purdue. Quite literally every part of this team has bottomed out with the exception of its rushing defense. On offense, Tom Allen’s squad is messing with the dangerous cocktail of an ultra-fast pace and a mistaken prone unit.
The numbers indicate that Indiana’s generous passing defense would provide a boost in confidence for a young quarterback. Regardless, Penn State should be able to move the ball with relative ease through the air.
Bet Penn State -14
Clemson -3.5 @ Notre Dame
As someone who watches every Notre Dame football game, I can honestly say I have no idea why this line is so low. The over/under sits around 44 points, which tells me that Vegas is expecting a lower scoring affair. That part makes total sense. What doesn’t, though, is the idea that Notre Dame’s offense do anything against the Clemson defense.
The Irish offense is extremely predictable at the moment and is based almost entirely on Michael Mayer’s ability to get open in the passing game. Beyond that, as the offensive line has improved, so has a running game that struggled mightily early on, but has found its legs of late. Clemson’s defense, though not as impervious as previous years, is still good enough to stop this attack and force Notre Dame to win on the arm of Drew Pyne.
I also understand that the Clemson offense has been a bit of an enigma. I expect a big game from Will Shipley and DJ U on the ground and a 10-13 point win for the Tigers.
Bet Clemson -3.5
