After a handful of successful weeks, the universe evened out. It was the most predictable possible outcome. Such is the ebb and flow of betting on sports. Last week’s confidence in Ole Miss and both Kansas teams was ill-advised.
Let’s go 3-0 in Week 9…
Notre Dame +2.5 @ Syracuse
Does this game scare me? Hell yes. The newly rebranded Carrier Dome is still where teams go to die. But this has the hallmark of a low-scoring, close game where you’d rather have the points on your side than not. As I said on this week’s preview podcast, this will be a slow game in which both teams have about 10 drives apiece to make their mark. If we do some quick math based on the latest points-per-drive numbers, Syracuse projects as a 28-22 victor. my bet is on the Notre Dame defense offering a little more resistance, making this game even closer.
Bet Notre Dame +2.5
Listen to our full Week 9 Picks podcast:
Louisville +4 vs. Wake Forest
This game is going to be the death of me and I like it way more than I should. Call me crazy, but I think Louisville is a bargain right now. The defense is playing better than most people think, the team is healthy and Malik Cunningham is always a threat, especially at home. This was a very close game a year ago and it feels like it’ll be decided by a field goal.
Bet Louisville +4
Kentucky +12.5 @ Tennessee
This is an intriguing game in both style and situation. Kentucky is 131st in the nation in adjusted pace and more than happy to slow things down and limit the number of times an opponent touches the ball. On average, the Wildcats are defending just 59 plays per game, which is among the least in the nation. That presents an obvious contrast to Tennessee’s ultra-fast offense, which runs about 76 offensive plays per game. I believe the Kentucky defense is good enough to slow down the Vols enough to keep this one within the number.
In addition, Tennessee has a monster game in Week 10 on the road against Georgia. Though I don’t believe the Vols will look past Kentucky, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw a more sluggish version.
Bet Kentucky +12.5
