Something wonderful happened last week: I went 3-0. Even better, I went 7-0 on the picks I posted to Twitter:
The truly miraculous bit of this, other than the fact I went undefeated, is that I overwhelming bet on road favorites. You can see that I called it out in the tweet. I hate, hate, hate betting road favorites. I even wrote back in 2013 how my No. 1 rule of college football gambling is to NOT BET ON ROAD FAVORITES. The reason is pretty simple. After home field advantage is factored into the point spread, it looks like you’re getting a better team at a discount. This, of course, is a mirage. Vegas pays the bills with these lines; it knows exactly what it’s doing.
When you’re off to a dismal start, the old playbook goes out the window. This week, I’m again trusting my gut, forgetting about point spreads, and picking the games that feel like the biggest mismatches. It just so happens that I’m also breaking my own rules. Again…
Clemson -7 at Wake Forest
It’s taken a bit for the Clemson offense to get up to speed. It’s not quite there yet, but it feels like the Tigers are picking up some steam. This represents a serious problem for Wake Forest, because, well, Wake Forest doesn’t play any defense. Sometimes, the best answer is the the most straightforward.
Wake will be able to move the ball and score some points, but it feels like a stretch to think that this will be a one score game at the final gun. This has something like 38-21 written all over it, in favor of the better team (Clemson) that can force more stops with its defense.
Bet Clemson -7
Oregon -6 at Washington State
Oregon has responded well to its Week 1 thrashing at the hands of Georgia. Last week’s game may have been in Eugene, but the Ducks still dispensed a good BYU squad with relative ease.
I expect a big game from Oregon’s defense against Washington State and Cameron Ward. Lanning’s calling card at Georgia was to mix in a variety of looks, creating a scheme that looked unpredictable to opposing quarterbacks. The Ducks have the manpower to run similar concepts against the Cougars in Pullman and force Ward to make bad decisions.
Bet Oregon -6
Utah -14 at Arizona State
Nope, I don’t understand this line at all. Unless Arizona State goes into full win-one-for-the-Gipper mode and plays to avenge the firing of Herm Edwards, I think there’s a good chance the Sun Devils get torched. Utah is a physical, disciplined team with a LOT to play for the rest of the way.
Bet Utah -14