Sneaky Stats for Week 2 of the 2022 College Football Season

Travis May

Contributor

Travis May is a Purdue University graduate. University of Southern Indiana MBA. Nashville-based. Indiana-born. He’s worked a pastor, music publisher, writer, and podcast host. Stats are his love language. His wife and son are his everything. Follow @FF_TravisM on Twitter.

Welcome to the Week 2 edition of the 2022 Sneaky Stats series! If you joined us the for the first two weeks or at all last year, you already know the drill. The Sneaky Stats series is your one-stop shop for all the most intriguing, predictive, goofy, and perhaps “sneaky” stats that define the biggest matchups of the college football season.

But before we dive into Week 2 Sneaky Stats, let’s take a quick look back at the Week 1 action to find some fun nuggets that may impact the many weeks of beautiful football to come this fall!

College Football Week 1

2nd

Notre Dame is officially (for now) the second-slowest offense in the nation after it averaged nearly 34 seconds per play on its 48 plays in the loss to Ohio State this past weekend. The Irish clearly wanted to slow things down, making the game as ugly as possible to try and keep it close against the Buckeyes’ high-powered offense. Solid strategy that almost worked. They mixed that slow pace with high-efficiency pass attempts and a high percentage of outside run calls (higher expected value than inside), but that just wasn’t good enough against the Buckeyes’ National Championship-caliber roster. Expect a much faster offense than we just saw in the weeks to come from the Irish.

58%

The entire N.C. State offense seemed disjointed as it barely squeaked out a victory against East Carolina. Part of it was back-to-back goal line failures (a fumble and a fourth down stop). But the main issue was perhaps that only 58% of quarterback Devin Leary’s passes were catchable. Leary posted back-to-back pass efficiency marks around the 90th percentile in 2020 and 2021, so perhaps this was just an outlier. But if not, and Leary continues to struggle, the Wolfpack are in for a long, disappointing season.

2.24

Believe it or not, the raw yardage totals for Oregon were much more respectable than the 49-3 final score of their devastating loss to Georgia might indicate. However, the passing game efficiency was the absolute deathblow to any hope for the Ducks. Quarterback Bo Nix posted 2.24 adjusted yards per pass attempt, good for second worst among all Power Five Conference teams in Week 1. That’s what 4.7 yards per attempt and two interceptions will do for you. It was against Georgia, but it looks like Oregon may be in real trouble this year on offense.

197

The Utah vs. Florida game brought plenty of excitement and the potential emergence of a Heisman campaign for quarterback Anthony Richardson. It also brought the highest combined rushing total between two quarterbacks in the entire nation this week. Utah quarterback Cameron Rising and Richardson combined for 197 yards on the ground, showing both their incredible dual-threat ability and their respective defenses’ ineptitude to stop mobile quarterbacks. Both teams may have looked electric on offense, but they’re far from perfect. If they don’t clean up gap and zone discipline, both teams will finish the season in the “overrated” category.

1,216

Not only did they tally a combined nine touchdowns in the final 12 minutes of the game, but North Carolina and Appalachian State accounted for 1,216 total yards from scrimmage. That’s not close to the Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield 1,708-yard explosion in 2016, but it was the most yards in any game this season through two weeks. North Carolina is on fire with offense, but its defense has let two non-Power Five Conference teams in a row run wild. The Tar Heels may be in for a rude awakening soon.

2.83

Florida State almost let LSU make a comeback this past week in primetime, but did just enough to hold it off. While both teams found some success with their mobile quarterbacks scrambling for extra rushing yards, their more typical run games struggled immensely, averaging just 2.83 yards per carry. For reference, the worst rushing offense in the nation averaged 2.79 yards per carry. Not good. Both teams, especially LSU (which saw 114 rushing yards from Jayden Daniels), will need to learn to rely less on their mobile quarterback to carry them on the ground if they want to keep their passers upright and force defenses to respect all facets of their offense.

College Football Week 2

Quarterback Bryce Young scored six touchdowns in the first 32 minutes of Alabama’s 55-0 victory over Utah State last week. Yes, it was just Utah State, but Young is clearly on pace for a Heisman repeat campaign: 27.8% of his completions went for a touchdown. And what makes him especially dangerous in a completely new way this year is that he averaged 20 yards per carry on five rushing attempts! Last season Young totaled exactly zero rushing yards. Now that Young is a willing runner, Texas probably won’t have any answer whatsoever for the future first round pick in their matchup this week.

8.49

BYU looked unstoppable in the run game last week against South Florida, posting 8.49 yards per carry. The Cougars found success with both primary running backs, their quarterback, and even creative wide receiver runs. However, Baylor’s defensive success against the run ranked 11th in the nation last year. If Baylor can stop BYU’s flashy run attack, the game will have to come down to the arm of quarterback Jaren Hall. Is that going to be enough to keep this one close?

When Tennessee played Pittsburgh last year, it (for some reason) was still starting Joe Milton at quarterback. But in the middle of that game, Hendon Hooker took over and nearly led the Volunteers to a comeback victory. Since taking over that day, Hooker has posted the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the nation, throwing 35 touchdowns to just three interceptions. His incredible consistency and ability to succeed against all types of defenses may prove far too much for Pittsburgh this week.

8.3

Wisconsin isn’t typically known for its offensive efficiency, but it somehow averaged 8.3 yards per play against Illinois State in week one! There has been exactly one Power Five conference school that averaged more than 8.3 yards per play throughout a season in the history of college football (2018 Oklahoma). On the flip side, Washington State (Wisconsin’s opponent this week) struggled against a bad FCS team (Idaho), only managing 24 total points and 5.5 yards per play. This should be a blood bath in favor of Wisconsin’s newfound offensive balance.

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121st

Despite playing a weak MAC team in Miami (OH), Kentucky ranked 121st in rush efficiency in Week 1. That likely had a lot to do with the fact that the Wildcats were without star running back Chris Rodriguez due to his DUI-related suspension. It looks like Kentucky will be without him again this week against Florida, too. And that’s a shame, because the only way to beat Florida in week one was on the ground. With definitely-not-first-round quarterback Will Levis at the helm, things could get ugly for Kentucky quickly.

95th

Caleb Williams’ true freshman season last year ranks first among all true freshman quarterbacks in modern college football history by several measures. But perhaps the most impressive measure? 95th-percentile scheme-adjusted pass efficiency. No other true freshman quarterback will likely ever come close to that. However, through week one, both USC and Stanford are averaging about 11 yards per pass attempt (both top-15 in the nation). Williams will have an incredible game, but Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee is no slouch. At 6’6″, 230 pounds with a well-above average passing profile himself, some McKee is also considered a real NFL prospect by some. This game will be won through the air and might just be a lot closer than you think.

2.23

Let’s be honest. Iowa’s brand of football should be permanently banned and all proof that it ever existed thrown into a fiery furnace. But sadly, the ugly abhorrent truth is that it actually works! Iowa and South Dakota collectively averaged 2.23 yards per play, allowed two safeties, and scored precisely zero offensive touchdowns. Iowa loves to force a slow ugly game and it’s fine barely scratching 100 passing yards on 25 attempts in the process. But can it slow down Iowa State in the same way it did an FCS team? The short answer is likely yes. The Cyclones have new offensive faces at both quarterback (Hunter Dekkers) and running back (Jirehl Brock) and Iowa State has scored more than 17 points just once in the previous six Cy-Hawk rivalry games.

Arizona looks like a completely different (actually quite good) team through one week! Quarterback Jayden De Laura was efficient through the air. Running back DJ Williams found consistent success on the ground. A veteran-laden defense shut down San Diego State all game long, especially through the air (only 62 passing yards allowed). But this week’s test against Mississippi State will be nothing like San Diego State. Mississippi State attempted 33 more passes in week one than San Diego State did against Arizona last week. The air raid will be a unique test for Arizona’s defense. But there’s one potentially underrated reason the Wildcats might be up to the task: their starting defense has about 40 seasons of collective experience, with only one freshman seeing significant action. This experienced squad should challenge Mississippi State more than most experts expect.

And that’s all the Sneaky Stats for the second full slate of 2022 College Football Season action! Enjoy Week 2 of the best sport in existence! If you have questions or comments, find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM and check out the College to Canton Podcast for more stats-based takes from me too!

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