Sneaky Stats for Week 1 of the 2022 College Football Season

Travis May

Contributor

Travis May is a Purdue University graduate. University of Southern Indiana MBA. Nashville-based. Indiana-born. He’s worked a pastor, music publisher, writer, and podcast host. Stats are his love language. His wife and son are his everything. Follow @FF_TravisM on Twitter.

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of the 2022 Sneaky Stats series! If you joined us last week for Week 0 or at all last year, you already know the drill. The Sneaky Stats series is your one-stop shop for all the most intriguing, predictive, goofy, and perhaps “sneaky” stats that define the biggest matchups of the college football season!

But before we dive into Week 1 Sneaky Stats, let’s take a quick look back at the Week 0 action to find some fun nuggets that may impact the several weeks of beautiful football to come this fall!

College Football Week 0

We were pretty confident in the Week 0 edition of Sneaky Stats that the Nebraska versus Northwestern faceoff in Ireland would come down to explosive passing. But we thought it would just be the Cornhuskers airing it out. Wrong! There were 16 total completions of 15 or more yards in this game and they came from both sides! Both teams tossed the rock for over 300 yards! What does this mean moving forward? Two things. It turns out Ryan Hilinski might not be terrible for Northwestern. Casey Thompson and the explosive Nebraska passing attack will keep them in most games, but the defense will have to do a much better job of stopping opposing passers too.

Vanderbilt’s exciting dual threat quarterback, Mike Wright, accounted for 309 yards of offense and four total touchdowns against Hawaii in Week Zero. Two touchdowns through the air. Two on the ground, including a wildly impressive 87-yard scamper and score. The last time a Vanderbilt quarterback accounted for four total touchdowns? Kyle Shurmur threw four passing touchdowns in a win over Tennessee in November of 2017! But even then there wasn’t any real rushing threat from the quarterback. The Commodores might finally have a quarterback that brings them some real wins!

The Illinois game went just as we predicted in Week Zero Sneaky Stats. Illinois ranked 94th in plays per game and ran the ball at an incredibly high rate. This past week against Wyoming? They ran 81 offensive plays and threw the ball 40 times, good for third in total plays and fourth in pass attempts among the 18 FBS squads on the week! What Illini offense is this? It’s one run by Barry Lunney Jr., who came over from UTSA. This 2022 Illinois team won’t be your daddy’s Illinois orange and blue.

8.39

Florida State averaged 8.39 yards per play against a severely overmatched Duquesne team this past weekend. The Seminoles had three 100-yard rushers and opened up the game with 33 straight unanswered points. How impressive is 8.39 yards per play, you ask? There have only been two instances of a team averaging even eight yards per play for a season in the history of college football (2017 & 2018 Oklahoma). There’s hope in Tallahassee.

152

The highly touted true freshman running back duo of Omarion Hampton and George Pettaway accounted for 152 rushing yards in Week Zero. Hampton ran for over 100 by himself. The Tar Heels desperately need this tandem to turn into the next Javonte Williams and Michael Carter if the team wants to maintain offensive momentum this fall. Early returns suggest that might just be a possibility.

15.8

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers averaged 15.8 more pass attempts per game last season than they threw in Week Zero against Austin Peay. Throwing the ball only 34 times, Western Kentucky surprisingly struggled to find their groove against an FCS team that returned essentially zero effective pass rushers. Maybe it was just an outlier, but things look like they may run a bit differently this year with a new offensive coordinator and quarterback for the Hilltoppers’ offense. We’ll see if that comes back to bite them when they play some real competition.

College Football Week 1

Georgia just set an NFL record by getting 15 of their players selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. And somehow, they still only trail the Oregon Ducks in returning production by about 5%. Stetson Bennett certainly anchors Georgia’s returning production of 60% or so (depending on how you calculate it), but Georgia also brings back key pieces of their all-time great defense (Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Kelee Ringo) and some solid receiving options (Brock Bowers, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey). The only way that this game isn’t an absolute massacre is if wily veteran quarterback Bo Nix pulls some absolute magic (which he has been known to do at times).

97th%

The 2022 Backyard Brawl between West Virginia and Pittsburgh won’t look at all like the 13-9 slobber knocker of 2007. Both teams have quarterbacks who, in their peak seasons, posted advanced pass efficiency marks as high as the 97th percentile or better! Yes, that’s right. Kedon Slovis, the quarterback who sent J.T. Daniels packing from USC to Georgia (now at West Virginia) actually posted an incredible 97th percentile pass efficiency profile that season in 2019. And J.T. Daniels? His 2020 Georgia season was actually the most efficient, impressive, pure passing stretch of production among all returning Power Five quarterbacks this year. They both have struggled with health in their “down” years, but that shouldn’t be an issue for this season opener. Let the aerial offensive fireworks begin!

56.1%

Arkansas and Cincinnati collectively lost over 56% of their receiving production from last year’s rosters via the NFL, graduation, and the transfer portal. Both teams’ lead receiver is gone. Treylon Burks is now a Tennessee Titan. Alec Pierce is now with the Indianapolis Colts. The difference (beyond replacing Desmond Ridder at QB for Cincinnati) may come in finding immediately trustworthy receiving options to propel these offenses down the field. Look for a dominant performance out of Jadon Haselwood immediately if he stays healthy (his only struggle).

Once Utah made the switch to Cam Rising at quarterback last year they averaged 38 points per game (top-10 in the nation in that span). Although Florida is just two years removed from an even more impressive points per game average (39.8) the 2022 squad is quite a bit different. The Gators have zero proven lead receiving options (Justin Shorter doesn’t count) and their rushing attack is replacing nearly all their production and experience. So, the question is: can Anthony Richardson put the team on his back and get the Gators to nearly 40 points against a top-25 defense in the Utah Utes?

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7.83

Ohio State is going to dominate on offense. Everyone knows this. But everyone doesn’t know much about Tyler Buchner. For starters, he’s a former five-star talent who posted 470 total yards and over six touchdowns per contest his junior high school season before missing his senior season due to COVID-19. And last year, thanks to his incredible dual threat ability, Buchner average 7.83 yards per play by himself in limited action. The few times Ohio State struggled a year ago was against mobile quarterbacks who could buy time in the pocket and add value with their legs. That’s the primary strength to Buchner’s game.

2.79

Purdue ranked dead last in the country last season in rushing efficiency, averaging a disgusting 2.79 yards per carry. Now they are missing their two best wide receivers (David Bell & Milton Wright) and a first-round edge rushing talent (George Karlaftis). Penn State shuts down the pass well, so there shouldn’t be a single area where Purdue has an advantage, even at home. This could get ugly for the Boilermakers.

222

Last year, Mississippi State outgained Memphis by 222 total yards of offense and still found a way to lose the game. And not just lose it, but lose it in ridiculously controversial fashion. However, the player at the center of that controversy (Calvin Austin III) who scored three touchdowns for Memphis in the second half is now with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Memphis has exactly zero NFL playmakers on offense this year. Mississippi State brings back plenty on offense and should outgain the Tigers by even more this year. Revenge blowout incoming.

75.1%

Florida State’s defense looked great against a bad FCS team last week! But so would most any other Power Five defense. This week will look a lot different. LSU returns 75.1% of their receiving production from a year ago, plus a healthy Kayshon Boutte (top five WR in the country) and productive veteran Kyren Lacy from Louisiana as a rotational mismatch option. Meanwhile, Florida State is missing its best corner and top two edge rushers from last season’s very average pass defense (74th in yards per game allowed). Oh yeah, and they have to account for the dual threat ability of LSU’s new transfer darling Jayden Daniels? Florida State is likely in for a beating.

And that’s all the Sneaky Stats for the first full slate of 2022 College Football Season action! Enjoy the Week 1 of the best sport in existence! If you have questions or comments find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM and check out the College to Canton Podcast for more stats-based takes from me too!

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January 5, 2022

College Football Week 0

College Football Week 1

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