Sneaky Stats for Week 0 of the 2022 College Football Season

Travis May

Contributor

Travis May is a Purdue University graduate. University of Southern Indiana MBA. Nashville-based. Indiana-born. He’s worked a pastor, music publisher, writer, and podcast host. Stats are his love language. His wife and son are his everything. Follow @FF_TravisM on Twitter.

Welcome to the first edition of the 2022 Sneaky Stats series! If you joined us last year, you already know the drill. The Sneaky Stats series is your one-stop shop for all the most intriguing, predictive, goofy, and perhaps “sneaky” stats that define the biggest matchups of the college football season!

We normally spend some time recapping key statistical takeaways from the previous week’s action, but unfortunately, we haven’t had a college football game in over 200 days. But the long wait is finally over! Week 0 is somehow already upon us, which means it’s time to jump right into some sneaky stats that may define this first round of 11 sweet, sweet games of college football this week!

9.3

If someone asked you to name the 10 most explosive passing offenses in 2021 there’s a good chance Nebraska wouldn’t have made your list. However, Nebraska averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt last fall! That was good for sixth in the nation in 2021. Nebraska, even with replacing their starting quarterback (Adrian Martinez, now Casey Thompson) and primary receiver target (Samori Toure, now likely Trey Palmer), should be able to slice through Northwestern’s porous defense. Northwestern ranked 102nd in yards allowed last fall, but the one area where that defense found success was in limiting explosive pass plays (3rd fewest pass plays of 20+ yards in FBS). If this game is close at all it will be because Northwestern limits the explosive passing game for Nebraska.

131st

Hawaii football ranks 131st (yes, dead last in the FBS) in returning production this year. The Rainbow Warriors have exactly one returning offensive playmaker (Dedrick Parson) who touched the ball more than 17 times last season. The new coaching staff led by Timmy Chang did bring in over a dozen transfers, but will that be enough to compete right away? The likely answer is “no” for Week 0. Why? Vanderbilt returns their quarterbacks, top running back, most efficient wide receiver, and 12 of their 18 most significant defensive contributors from a year ago. The betting line should probably be a bit more than just a touchdown in favor of Vanderbilt, a veteran team used to facing off against top SEC competition.

426.2

That’s how many passing yards per game Bailey Zappe (esteemed guest of the The Solid Verbal show last year) averaged in 2021 for Western Kentucky. And while that record-breaking pace likely won’t continue this season, the Hilltoppers might just reach that mark against Austin Peay this Saturday. The Governors of Austin Peay didn’t have a terrible defense last year, but they did struggle with consistently pressuring the passer. Their best pass rusher Terrell Allen transferred out, and now they have exactly zero pass rushers on their team who managed to pressure the quarterback more than a dozen times last season. This game should be a massacre through the air with perhaps four or more passing touchdowns for Western Kentucky through the first half.

There were just 15 “run heavy, fast-paced” teams (>70 plays per game and >55% of all plays being runs) in all of College Football last year. Not a common play style. Illinois’ new offensive coordinator was at the helm of one of those teams in UTSA for 2021. Last year, Illinois ranked 94th in plays per game, consistently trying to “shorten” games to keep things close. That pace of play should flip this year. And in a spot where they face off with a Wyoming team who lost just about everyone from last year’s roster, the Illini may be able to blow them out in a big way. Right now, the betting line is only 11 points in favor of Illinois, despite Wyoming’s 99th ranked rush defense from last year that is now even more inexperienced.

56th

Drake Maye ranked 56th overall in the 2021 recruiting class according to the 247Sports Composite. He is the highest rated quarterback in North Carolina Tar Heel history. However, don’t be surprised if Maye struggles to put up gaudy stats right away against Florida A&M this weekend. The Tar Heels receiver room is very shallow, and Florida A&M is a respectable FCS program which held opponents to about 4.5 yards per play last year.

1st

The Mean Green of North Texas ranked first in the nation last year in plays per game. Yet somehow they ranked 76th in points per game. How is that extremely embarrassing gap even possible? Well, for starters, they ranked 118th in touchdown percentage on pass attempts. However, with any regression to the mean for soon-to-be 29-year-old quarterback Austin Aune in the touchdown department, North Texas should rectify their scoring woes. UTEP doesn’t have a soft defense, but they should struggle to keep offensive pace since their best offensive playmaker in Jacob Cowing (over 1300 receiving yards last year) transferred to Arizona.

7.13

Charlotte already allowed 7.13 yards per play last season, good for 124th in the nation. But then they lost three high snap count linebackers and six total defensive starters this offseason. Their near-worst FBS defense which gave up 34 points per game last year might be even worse now, at least to start the year. Enter Florida Atlantic this week. The Owls return several key offensive starters and get to face off with Charlotte at home. There’s no reason FAU shouldn’t win by multiple scores.

Florida State brought in nine scholarship transfer players this offseason on the offensive side of the ball. Trey Benson at running back (from Oregon). Winston Wright (from West Virginia), Johnny Wilson (from Arizona State), Mycah Pittman (from Oregon), and Deuce Spann (from Illinois) at wide receiver. Plus, several offensive linemen. Getting the new offensive weapons plenty of work and confidence against a weak Duquesne team could prove crucial in Florida State finally finding some offensive consistency under Mike Norvell. The Seminoles ranked 9th in the ACC in yards per play in 2021. That’s not good enough for this longtime “blue blood” program.

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Connecticut has exactly one win against FBS opponents since 2018. And that one doesn’t even really count because it was against UMass. Utah State should be able to give their incredibly deep wide receiver room a healthy amount of work after they get up by four scores in the first half. If you’re into college fantasy football, adding the right Utah State receiver after this game could win you the league given their crazy pass volume against low level competition.

130th

Nevada is ranked just one rung above Hawaii in returning production at 130th in the nation. They would be in huge trouble if they were playing a real football team in Week 0. Good thing New Mexico State is probably one of the five worst FBS teams in 2022. The one strength for New Mexico State last year was their passing attack and that should still be the case. Unfortunately, the one area where Nevada does return last season’s production production is on the back end of their secondary and in the trenches at pass rush. Their 2021 leader in pass rush pressures, Dom Peterson, should have an absolute field day.

UNLV brough in five key Power Five transfers this season. Harrison Bailey (from Tennessee) and Ricky White (from Michigan State) could be real game changers if they both earn starting roles. Bailey, a former top tier four star recruit, is still waiting for his starting announcement, but the job should be his. Ricky White averaged over 22 yards per receptions last year and should actually be an upgrade over Steve Jenkins from last season. If they both start, they could absolutely destroy an Idaho State team who couldn’t keep their offense on the field last year, averaging less than 16 points per game.

And that’s all the Sneaky Stats for the opening weekend of the 2022 College Football Season! Enjoy the kickoff of the best sport in existence! If you have questions or comments find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM and check out the College to Canton Podcast for more stats-based takes from me too!

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