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(Photo by Stu in Tuscaloosa)

First Impressions

In the days leading up to the 2009 college football season, Ole Miss was pegged as this year’s darkhorse contender by a number of experts.  Just a few weeks ago, Phil Steele mentioned on our program the possibility of Ole Miss having a bang-up season and potentially making a run at the SEC or national title.  Lofty praise to say the least.  Both polls, thus far, have agreed that the Rebels are a force with which to be reckoned, and Houston Nutt is poised to electrify the south with Jevan Snead and his tricky “Wild Rebel” offense in his second year in Oxford.

As EDSBS’s Spencer Hall put it while guest-hosting The Solid Verbal, “Houston Nutt is crazier than a sack of weasels.”  And, in large part, that’s why Ole Miss could be so dangerous in 2009.  Nutt has always had unpredictability and crazy formations on his side — now he’s got 16 returning starters and as favorable a home schedule as you could ever hope to have in the SEC.  Let’s see if Ole Miss is for real.

Last Year

Houston Nutt arrived at Ole Miss and instantly improved the offense.  His main weapon was Jevan Snead, who threw for 26 touchdowns and almost 2,800 yards.  His secondary attack featured a three-headed monster on the ground in the form of WR Dexter McCluster, RB Cordera Eason, and RB Brandon Bolden, all of whom rushed for more than 500 yards.  His group of receivers (including McCuster, obviously) showed the same level of balance, with three receivers gaining more than 600 yards on the season.  Collectively, this lead to an average of 32.1 points per game in 2008, up 12 points from 2007.  Likewise, the Rebels’ total offense went up by more than 60 yards per game, which lead to a 9-4 record, including a Cotton Bowl victory over then-No. 8 Texas Tech.

But there weren’t just improvements on offense.  Ole Miss improved its defense by almost 120 yards and 10 points per game.  Opponents averaged less than 100 yards rushing against a tough Rebel front, which also logged more sacks (38) than any Ole Miss team thus far this decade.

The Rebels’ M.O. in ’08, at least at the start of the season, was inconsistency.  Losses against Wake Forest and Vanderbilt didn’t seem to add up, especially after this team knocked off Florida in Gainesville only a few weeks later.  But after a tough loss in Tuscaloosa, the Rebels hit their stride, rattling off six straight wins and marching into 2009 with high expectations.

People

You already know about Jevan Snead, Cordera Eason, Brandon Bolden, and Dexter McCluster.  This year, you’ll learn about them, as well as highly-touted freshman WR Pat Patterson.  This offense figures to pack a powerful punch behind an offensive line that averages 332 lbs, which is third in the NCAA.

Defensively, safety Kendrick Lewis returns for his senior season after a great 2008 campaign in which he led the Rebels with 85 tackles.  But he’s not the only returner.  Ole Miss brings back seven other defensive starters, including Kentrell Lockett, Ted Laurent, Macus Tillman, Jonathan Cornell, Allen Walker, Marshay Green and Cassius Vaughn.  This defense will be experienced to say the least — starting all juniors and seniors (at least according to early projections).

This Year

Mississippi’s road schedule features the following juggernauts: Memphis, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Mississippi State.  That’s it.  In addition to dodging Florida, the Rebels figure to have three difficult SEC games against Alabama, Tennessee and LSU, all of which will be played in Oxford.  Arkansas could be a sneaky game as the Hogs played Ole Miss tight last season, but it wouldn’t appear as though there are more than two or three losses on their schedule.  At least not on paper.

Conclusions

For as promising as Ole Miss seems to be with 16 returning starters, you have to wonder if the hype can be transformed into legitimate performance.  We know that Mississippi’s offense will be one of the most experienced in the SEC, and should improve upon last year’s 32.1 points per game.  We know that this defense is ready to take a big step forward.  But we don’t know how much of this hype is warranted.  The games aren’t played on paper, and if any conference has taught us that in recent years, it’s the SEC.

It would be fantastic to see a team like Ole Miss throw its hat in the SEC circus and take the West division.  A new team in the mix would be an exciting wrinkle.  But the question remains: How much do you really trust Houston Nutt?

Prediction

10-2

Game Highlights Set To Symphony Music

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3szJTBxq0BE

–Ty

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First Impressions

Two seasons ago, I penned the following line regarding Georgia football in an effort to draw a parallel between the Bulldogs and the great WWF star “The Ultimate Warrior“:

Hulk Hogan once described The Ultimate Warrior as a “flat character.” Is that not Georgia? Other than a wild touchdown celebration against Florida, the Dawgs have no real defining characteristics. Likewise, they continually fall short of being THE team to beat in college football, content on going 8-4, 9-3, or 10-2 every season.

Never in my life have I been so afraid.  This statement resonated throughout Dawg Nation like a crying baby in a crowded church.  And I was inundated, relentlessly, with messages from angry fans, all of whom contested every syllable of the three sentences I had inadvertently used to launch a pseudo-controversy.  It was undoubtedly the closest I had ever come to being beaten by an angry mob while attempting a joke about a once-superstar in an imaginary sport.

It was then that I realized what Georgia football was all about.  Though I stand by those initial statements — Georgia still hasn’t gotten over that proverbial hump on the national stage — I realize that Georgia sees it differently.  Georgia doesn’t lower its standards when it falls short; if anything, it raises them.  (And its fans sure as hell didn’t appreciate me poking a stick in their wound.)

That’s where we’re at with the Dawgs in 2009.  Only a year ago, this team was loaded for bear with Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno on offense, and a preseason No. 1 ranking to its credit.  But as losses amassed against Alabama, Florida and Georgia Tech, it became clear that Georgia was somewhat overrated.  It also became clear that Georgia, at least under Mark Richt, thrives better when it can fly under the radar.  And, well, hello 2009.

As Stafford and Moreno were both first round NFL picks, and the focus in the SEC has shifted to teams such as Florida, Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss, Georgia again finds itself lurking in the weeds, perhaps an upset or two away from making an improbable run.

Last Year

Georgia started the 2008 season as the preseason No. 1 team in the country behind Matthew Stafford‘s arm, and Knowshon Moreno‘s legs.  But it simply wasn’t meant to be.  After starting the year 3-0, Georgia was downed in Sanford Stadium by Alabama, dashing their dreams of a march through the SEC, and launching another title run, indirectly, for the Crimson Tide.

The Dawgs, however, got their act together and hammered out three consecutive wins against Tennessee, Vanderbilt and LSU (in Baton Rouge), setting up a showdown in Jacksonville with another one-loss SEC team: Florida.  But that wasn’t meant to be, either.  The Gators had Georgia on their mind after Mark Richt’s premeditated antics in 2007, and subsequently rolled up a 49-10 blowout victory, which essentially stole the Dawgs’ soul in the second half, and for the remainder of the season.  Two-loss Georgia was out of contention.

And that was pretty much that.  Georgia mailed it in.  In its final three regular season games, the Dawgs survived two back-to-back road scares against Kentucky and Auburn, before eventually succumbing to Georgia Tech to end its season.  Though Georgia won the Capital One Bowl over Michigan State, 2008 was a huge disappointment.

People

Though Georgia loses its two biggest names, the team, as a whole, returns 15 starters.  Get used to names like QB Joe Cox, RB Caleb King, and an underrated group of WRs led by AJ Green and Michael Moore, and a veteran group of defenders led by Geno Atkins, Rennie Curran and Reshad Jones.  Coach Mark Richt will again be in charge of navigating the ship through treacherous SEC waters.  This is the kind of underdog squad with which he is known to excel.  However, one of his most important tasks will be trying to drive a better turnover differential — the last two times Georgia‘s differential has been in the black, the Dawgs have qualified for a BCS bowl.

This Year

Georgia will be tested early when it travels to Stillwater to square off against Oklahoma State, arguably the second-best team in the Big 12, on September 5th.  More importantly, it will provide a very early glimpse at what Georgia’s defense can do against a high-powered offense, which has been a concern over the last few years (the Dawgs’ average points allowed has steadily increased from 16.4 to 24.5 since 2005).

The biggest challenge, however, will be maneuvering another grueling year in the SEC.   This schedule is littered with potential landmines, and quite simply, there are no breaks.  After Okie State, Georgia is looking at South Carolina, @Arkansas, Arizona State, LSU, @Tennessee, @Vanderbilt, Florida (in Jacksonville), Tennessee Tech (OK, this might be a break), Auburn, Kentucky, and @Georgia Tech.  Such is life in the SEC.  The good news is that the Dawgs have a favorable home schedule; the bad news is that LSU, Florida and Georgia Tech could all be major flies in the ointment.

Perhaps the biggest challenge for Mark Richt will be finding better harmony between offense and defense.  Simply put, the offense cannot be asked to win every game, and the defense MUST step up and do its share if this season is going to exceed expectations.

Conclusions

Georgia is surprisingly deep in 2009, and in a familiar role in which it has succeeded before under Mark Richt.  Mark me down as a believer that this team will be extremely competitive in every single game, with losses only against Oklahoma State and Florida.

Prediction:

10-2