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Throughout August, we will be counting down the top 25 teams (as listed here) going into the 2009 season. Today, we cut up our t-shirts and don cowgirl hats to celebrate all things Seminole. Luckily, Chief Osceola had this very image in mind when he fought for the freedom and safety of his people in the mid 1830s. Wooooo!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Impression

Is this the year? It seems like it could be, though you can never truly be optimistic until everyone is positive Drew Weatherford is off campus for good. 

Although things appear to be taking shape in Tallahassee for a leap in ’09, I still hesitate to fully get behind the team until some sort of statement is made against a good team. Luckily, Bobby Bowden will take that literally and will continue to make as many verbal statements during his awesome in-game interviews. 

I’ve always liked Florida State. They used to be able to harness their great mix of scary fast defenders and scary fast offensive skill players, and now they just have those kinds of players that occasionally break free to wreak havoc. If Jimbo Fisher ever gets to take over and puts together a quality staff, the rest of the ACC will immediately go back to fighting for second. 

Last Year

After demolishing two cupcakes, FSU put up a whopping three points at home in a loss to Wake Forest. Seriously. Three points. Christian Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson went ahead and completed 12 of 36 passes along the way. Woops. 

Luckily, the ‘Noles bounced back against four slightly above average opponents and finished out October 6-1, including a win over eventual 10 game winner and conference champion, Virginia Tech. It’s a respectable 6-1. 

A brutal game was fumbled away late against Georgia Tech which, mind you, is heartbreaking, but at least it didn’t come against Duke. 

Another good win over Clemson was followed by another disappointing home loss, this time to Boston College. Florida State should never lose to BC. Ever. This is the type of game that FSU absolutely needs to rip apart if they’re on their way back. 

A solid Maryland road win fed into getting predictably demolished by Florida. The season ended on a high note with the Seminoles blowing out a brat-filled Wisconsin team that looked to be running in slow motion during most of the Champs Sports Bowl. Promising. 

People

No team should ever be able to run consistently on Florida State. They recruit and send too many genetically superior players to the NFL. This year, look for Kevin McNeil and Markus White to be the new names coming off the edge.

As always, though, the returning talent is great (CB Patrick Robinson, LB Dekoda Watson), but consistent play is still needed around them for the ‘Noles to even think about ten wins. 

Things on offense should continue to get easier, as FSU may have the best line in the ACC. Unfortunately, they replace Antone Smith at tailback (with Jermaine Thomas), lose their starting two receivers (Preston Parker, Greg Carr), and are still dealing with uncertainty over the identity of the offense. That said, everyone looks better behind an experienced, dominant line. 

It’s worth noting that E.J. Manuel sits behind Ponder at QB. Manuel was a huge recruiting get for FSU last season, and although he’s still pretty raw, he could see the field situationally. 

This Year

BRUTAL. Six of the first seven games are losable. Seriously. They open with Miami at home, and after another home game against Jacksonville State, they go @BYU, South Florida, @Boston College, Georgia Tech, @North Carolina. Not fun at all. If they’re 5-2 to start the year, it’s reason to celebrate. 

A road game at North Carolina State leads into road games @Clemson and then @Wake Forest, and the year finishes with the same two teams that it did in ’08: Maryland and then Florida (in Gainesville). 

The ‘Noles must MUST win at home and steal at least one early on the road. Boston College is beatable and a win at North Carolina should be impressive, especially given the high expectations for UNC. I’d be happy taking one on the road against Clemson or Wake, and finishing 9-3. A 9-3 year is a big deal with this schedule. 

Conclusion

As I said earlier, Florida State won’t fully turn the corner and become what they think they should be (again) until staffing is overhauled. It’s not to say that Bobby Bowden, Chuck Amato, Mickey Andrews, et al. didn’t preside over the greatest era of FSU Football, but eventually everything needs to be overhauled.

Prediction 

9-3, but I absolutely believe in the annual bonehead Florida State loss. It doesn’t feel like football season has really started until you do a double take when looking at a Florida State loss on the ACC scoreboard. Ahh, Fall. 

Game Highlights Set to Unfortunate Music

www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8p5HbtuUdg

-Dan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Impressions

Oh, how quickly we forget TCU‘s 17-16 victory in the revered Poinsettia Bowl over Boise State last year — you know, the game that had an over/under line somewhere north of John Daly’s weight.  It’s not easy being a non-BCS team in today’s world, especially when you post an 11-2 season and end up playing in the FREAKING POINSETTIA BOWL.  Not cool.

The Horned Frogs will have their work cut out for them if they hope to match last season’s success.  Can TCU effectively replace the loss of 13 starters?  Even if it can, a road schedule featuring Virginia, Clemson and BYU will be extremely challenging.  That said, TCU’s defense has been absolutely stifling over the last decade; if the trend continues in 2009, there’s no reason to think that the Frogs can’t compete in a big way despite some question marks on the offensive and defensive lines.

Regardless of how TCU’s 2009 season ends, the Horned Frogs deserve an awful lot of respect for the way they have battled over the last decade.  They’re tough to root against.

Last Year

TCU’s only two losses came on the road at Oklahoma (35-10) and Utah (13-10).  That’s it.  Actually, if it weren’t for an improbable Utah drive in the waning minutes of last year’s game, the Horned Frogs would’ve been 12-1.  Otherwise, with the exception of a close win against Colorado State, TCU’s victory margin in every other game was no less than 23 points.

Technically, TCU fell short in its quest to join the ranks of other elite non-BCS teams; however, you could argue that they’re already there.

People

TCU loses 13 starters from 2008, so understandably, there are major questions about replacing significant losses, especially on both the offensive and defensive lines.  But there is much firepower returning.  Standout defensive end Jerry Hughes will be back wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks again, building on his NCAA-leading sack total.  Junior QB Andy Dalton will have reliable targets in Jimmy Young and Jeremy Kerley.  And, in a weird mix of USC football with Major League Baseball, TCU could have a full, five-man rotation at RB with Ryan Christian, Joseph Turner, Chris Smith, Jai Caveness, and Edward Wesley. Senior tackle Marshall Newhouse will be bashing heads up front.  Coach Gary Patterson will have his work cut out for him.

Conclusion

There aren’t more than two losses on TCU’s schedule in 2009, so, as a baseline, you should be thinking of a 10-2 season.  The only real question is whether Patterson can inject new blood into the lineup and get the same production as last season.  While this team has the talent to go 12-0, chances are on a road loss at Clemson or BYU.  In one man’s opinion, the Clemson game will be the Horned Frog’s only loss.

Prediction

11-1

Highlights Set To Unfortunate Music

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8OuXa_xd0Y

--Ty

First Impressions

It is apparent after looking at BYU‘s 2009 schedule that the Cougars athletic department picked this season as the year it could potentially make a BCS splash.  Despite a shaky Mountain West schedule, which, as usual, features only Utah and TCU, the Cougs scheduled a neutral site game with Oklahoma to open its season and then a home game against Florida State two weeks later.  As our friend Phil Steele says in his publication, a 12-0 season for BYU could put them in the hunt for a BCS Championship.  Probable?  No.  But possible?  Boom goes the dynamite.

Coach Bronco Mendenhall might have the best name in college football (not counting Shavodrick Beaver, of course) and absolutely has the right attitude to raise BYU’s profile in the college football world.  This man wants to win a BCS championship, and though talk is cheap, he’s saying all the right things.

Last Year

BYU started 2008 with a 6-0 record, and hopes were high among Cougar fans that a Mountain West title and possible BCS bowl were in the cards.  However, after only beating hapless Washington by a 28-27 score in week two, the writing was on the wall for a deflating loss, which eventually came against No. 24 TCU.  All told, the Cougs finished 10-2, but you could argue that the record was more an aberration thanks to a weak conference — BYU’s two losses came against the only two ranked teams it played all year (the aforementioned TCU and, later, Utah).  To close out the year, BYU lost to Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl.  Though a 10-3 record is hardly embarrassing, the 2008 season was a failure due to sky-high expectations by BYU fans.

(Personal note: If you write anything remotely true but unflattering about BYU football, you will be inundated by e-mails.  I didn’t think it would happen, but it did.  BYU has a surprisingly loyal and outspoken fan base.)

People

Three words: Max Effin Hall.  Last year as a junior, Hall threw for over 3,900 yards and 35 touchdowns, adding to the reputation of BYU’s wide-open style of offense.  He’ll be throwing to several receivers who may or may not be returning from missions, as well as tight end Dennis Pitta, who logged a healthy 83 receptions and 1,083 yards in 2008.  He’ll be handing the ball off to Harvey Unga, an experienced back.  In short, his team will score points.  That’s not even a question.  On the defensive side of the ball, keep your ears open for DE Jan Jorgensen, the MWC’s all-time sacks leader and potential NFL draft pick.

This Year

Plain and simple, BYU will be tested early.  You have to give credit to the Cougs for scheduling tough non-conference opponents, and for taking a shot at jumping into the BCS discussion.  Max Hall seems poised for another monster year, and BYU‘s coach certainly has enough vim and vigor to convince this team that it can pull off a major upset.  Oklahoma is sure to be a tough opponent, but if this game should end up being a shootout, wouldn’t that play right into BYU‘s wheelhouse?  Just sayin’.

The more realistic expectation, of course, is for a Mountain West championship.  In order to do that, BYU needs to pound the creampuffs on its schedule and take down both TCU and Utah (like two of the last three years, as noted by a commenter).  This feels doable, but only if the Cougs can rebuild their offensive line and stop the pass… two essential elements in a pass-happy conference.

Conclusions

It’s tough to convince yourself that BYU is a legitimate contender that is capable of beating Oklahoma, Florida State and Utah in the same season.  Would love to see it, but recent history (read: last year) would indicate that it’s just not gonna happen against ranked opponents.  That said, Mendenhall has done a nice job recruiting fresh talent to Provo, and a Mountain West title would be a nice pick-me-up for a program with a dynamic coach at the helm.

Prediction

10-3

Highlights Set To Unfortunate Music

www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDXFaWmVChg

--Ty

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First Impressions

A case could be made that this has been the Offseason of Utah. You could also consider Lane Kiffin and Tennessee, but it seems like the Utah football program is a central theme in every BCS story and more (or less) importantly, every congressional college football hearing thus far during the offseason. 

Larger stories aside, Utah has done quite well for itself. Its recruiting base isn’t big, but through innovative coaching and steady player development, the Utes have been able to couple quality 7-9 win seasons with special seasons in which they’ve punched some huge teams square in the mouth. 

Utah shares the same ol’ problem that most teams in western states face: exposure. You can only draw so many conclusions without actually seeing games, which obviously can work for or (generally) against non-BCS conference teams with BCS aspirations. 

As a west coast football fan, very few things have been more satisfying to watch than Utah dismantling a pouting Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl. Do you hear that ringing? John Parker Wilson still does. 

Last Year

Undefeated. Plain and simple, Utah was the most important team of the 2008 college football team. 

For you nitpickers, there were some weaker parts of the 2008 season that a supposed national title contender shouldn’t have on their resumés. Only beating a terrible Michigan team by two is defensible given it was the first game of the year and it was on the road. Winning by three over a 4-win New Mexico team that fired their coach after the season is far less than impressive. Oregon State couldn’t close out a game at Utah with under a minute left and Utah promptly took advantage. It’s what great teams do. 

2008 = The Year of the Ute. 

People

Wait, where did everybody go? The Utes lose starting QB Brian Johnson to graduation (amongst unconfirmed rumors of an AC/DC tour), the three starting receivers, star DE Paul Kruger early to the draft, two starters on the OL, a rotation RB, a defensive tackle, and both starting corners. Kruger’s supposed weakside replacement, blue chip JC transfer James Aiono, also won’t be making it to the SLC until next season. 

The strength of the team looks to be the returning linebackers, led by OLB Stevenson Sylvester (I checked, it’s not backwards). It’ll be a season of opponents both attacking what should be a more conservative offensive attack and throwing against an inexperienced Ute secondary. 

On the coaching front, they lose offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig, though some (ahem) may argue the validity of the term “loss” here. The good news is that the Utah head coach job appears to be a destination gig for Kyle Whittingham, which is always an advantage when your team is forced to swim against the current in a skewed system. 

This Year

They open with two wins against Utah State and San Jose State. SJSU has improved under Dick Tomey, but Utah should be able to get a win after USC toys with the Spartans the week before. As nice as it was to beat Oregon six years ago (and inspire the Ducks to move to the spread), Eugene doesn’t look to be pretty for a rebuilding team. 

Louisville is a winnable home game, Colorado State is a bowl team that could pose problems on the road. Frankly, a game at UNLV followed by three straight at home against Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico should all yield victories. 

The tail end of the schedule has the Utes on the road against TCU and BYU teams that can’t be terribly pleased about losing in Salt Lake City last year. There’s a small shot against TCU, but the Holy War at BYU won’t be pretty. 

Conclusion

The personnel losses are significant, but outside of three brutal road games at Oregon, TCU, and BYU, the Utes have a reasonable opportunity to minimize their fall from last season’s unprecedented grace. Breaking in new corners is never fun, but the passing in the Mountain West is essentially limited to Max Hall and BYU … though it is A LOT of passing. 

The Prediction

8-4

Highlights Set to Unfortunate Music

-Dan

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