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The Fleming System: Computer Bowl Picks and Week 15 Rankings

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This week, I have gone through the rankings and the bowl tie-ins to try to anticipate which teams will play in which bowls?

First, please understand that this is just the computer picking the participants.  I have used TFS overall rankings to pick the ten BCS bowl teams.  After that, I have used the ranking separated by conference to pick the remaining bowl tie-ins.  Things get a little messy in some cases, such as the Armed Forces and Military Bowls, so I have used a little subjective judgment (which is of course open to criticism).  The only things that are certain at this point are that Brigham Young is going to the Fight Hunger Bowl, and that Navy is going to the Armed Forces Bowl.

These predictions are most likely wrong are when dealing with bids for the Pac-12.  Since TFS does not place Northern Illinois in the top 16, the Huskies are relegated to the GoDaddy.com Bowl (which is given to the top pick out of the MAC). So, it is very unlikely that the Pac-12 will get two two-loss teams into the BCS picture, which bumps all of the Pac-12 teams down a bowl, and leaves Washington State, with their 6-6 record, relegated to the “bowl eligible, but lacking a tie-in” category.) I’ll say more on the 6-6 teams in a minute.

But regardless of what TFS thinks, Northern Illinois will probably finish in the top 16 of the BCS standings, and ahead of Central Florida, who will take the top spot in the American Athletic Conference.  Having an “AAC” and an “ACC” takes some getting used to!  This will bump out one of the major conference second place finishers and move a number of things around.

But also, it should be noted that the bowl representatives pick the bowls.  So these “predictions” are probably way off from the final reality.  But it gives people something to poke fun at, so here it goes…

To begin, here are the BCS bowl teams, as predicted by The Fleming System:

AAC: Central Florida

ACC: Florida State

B1G: Ohio State, Michigan State

Big12: Oklahoma State, Baylor

Pac12: Arizona State, Stanford

SEC: Alabama, Missouri

Of these, the BCS Championship Game would get Florida State and Alabama.  Yes, I know that Alabama lost to Auburn and will have a record no worse than the conference champion.  But keep in mind that that is EXACTLY how Alabama was situated when it landed the rematch against LSU for the title game two years ago.  (Regardless, I think this is a place the computer has it wrong – Alabama will not get into the title game ahead of the SEC champion.  Also, since the SEC Championship game is yet to be played, the result has obviously not yet been entered into the computed rankings.

So with all that in mind, and knowing that pretty much EVERYTHING important has yet to be settled, what with championship games in the ACC, B1G, Pac12, SEC, MAC and MWC to be played, here are the rest of the predictions:

New MexicoBoise StateWashington State
Las VegasFresno StateWashington
Famous PotatoBall StateSan Jose State
New OrleansTulaneLouisiana-Lafayette
Beef O'Brady(open - AAC)Texas-San Antonio
HawaiiRiceSan Diego State
Little Caesar(open - B1G)Bowling Green
PoinsettiaUtah State(open - Army)
MillitaryNorth CarolinaToledo
Texas(open - B1G)(open - Big12)
Fight HungerBrigham YoungArizona
PinstripeCincinnati(open - Big12)
BelkHoustonMiami (Fl)
Russell Ath.LouisvilleDuke
Buffalo Wild WingsNebraskaKansas State
Armed ForcesNavyMarshall
Music CityGeorgia TechMississippi
AlamoTexasOregon
HolidayTexas TechUCLA
AdvoCareBoston College(open - SEC)
SunVirginia TechSouthern Cal
LibertyEast CarolinaVanderbilt
Chick Fil AClemsonGeorgia
Dallas(open - B1G)North Texas
GatorMichiganTexas A&M
OutbackIowaSouth Carolina
Capital OneWisconsinAuburn
RoseOhio StateBCS At-Large
FiestaOklahoma StateBCS At-Large
SugarBCS At-LargeBCS At-Large
CottonOklahomaLouisiana State
OrangeFlorida StateBCS At-Large
BBVA Compass(open - AAC)Mississippi State
GoDaddy.comNorthern IllinoisWestern Kentucky
BCS ChampionshipArizona StateAlabama

Of these matchups, my absolute favorite is Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl.  If there is a way for that to happen, mark it down now.

As for the open slots, in which conferences have run out of bowl-eligible teams to fill their tie-ins, I have left those open.  I expect Notre Dame to end up in the Pinstripe Bowl against an AAC opponent (TFS currently predicts Cincinnati.)  As for the others, well …

Counting the spot which Notre Dame will take, there are nine open slots.  As of right now, there are 13 bowl-eligible teams with no tie-in agreements to give them a spot.  Of those 13, five have a 6-6 record.  As I understand the rules, no 6-6 team can be used to fill a spot if any 7-win teams have not been picked.  (That rule may no longer be in effect, considering that 9-3 Louisiana Tech stayed home last bowl season.)  But if the 6-6 rule is in play (which I believe it should be), then only one of Oregon State, Pitt, Syracuse, Florida Atlantic and Central Michigan will be going to bowls.

And, of course, next weeks games will change everything.  Conference championship winners will rise, loser will drop, and in conferences such as the Big12 that do not have championship games, there may be a team or two tat gain bowl eligibility in the final week.

Here are your rankings for Week 15, followed by a quick chart of the top conference, as far as TFS is concerned:

RankSchoolWinsLossesSchedule
1Arizona St102139.099
2Alabama111131.358
3Missouri111133.631
4Florida St120128.185
5Stanford102137.407
6Ohio State120128.996
7Auburn111133.677
8Michigan St111129.184
9South Carolina102135.372
10Oklahoma St101129.928
11Wisconsin92131.841
12Oregon102133.447
13Baylor101129.646
14UCLA93136.317
15Clemson102130.597
16Southern Cal94136.273
17LSU93133.11
18Oklahoma92130.536
19Washington84135.444
20Georgia84136.575
21Northern Illinois120121.922
22Texas A&M84134.902
23Notre Dame84135.5
24Iowa84133.997
25Central Florida101124.481
26Arizona75136.611
27Duke102126.703
28Louisville101120.831
29Texas83131.676
30Virginia Tech84131.801
31Brigham Young84130.92
32Miami FL93128.439
33Michigan75134.506
34Washington St66137.62
35Kansas St75133.003
36Minnesota84132.276
37Mississippi75135.125
38Fresno St101120.625
39Vanderbilt84129.303
40Nebraska84130.873
41Oregon St66136.07
42Bowling Green93120.833
43Mississippi St66136.268
44Houston84126.373
45Georgia Tech75129.829
46Utah57138.684
47Ball St102119.883
48Texas Tech75130.161
49Cincinnati92118.395
50Boston College75130.229
51Utah St84123.464
52Boise St84124.547
53Navy74126.697
54East Carolina93121.015
55Penn State65130.708
56North Carolina66132.117
57Pittsburgh66133.014
58Toledo75129.287
59Tennessee57136.32
60Rice93121.714
61Indiana57135.351
62Florida48137.105
63Northwestern57134.847
64Marshall93118.342
65Buffalo84122.236
66North Texas84121.647
67Syracuse66129.604
68Louisiana-Lafayette83119.739
69Maryland75126.879
70TCU48135.195
71San Diego St75126.657
72Texas-San Antonio75125.162
73Colorado48135.969
74San José St66127.704
75UNLV75124.449
76Western Kentucky84119.96
77Tulane75122.093
78Middle Tennessee St84119.951
79Illinois48133.583
80Florida Atlantic66123.354
81Arkansas39135.091
82Arkansas St75122.216
83Iowa St39134.078
84West Virginia48132.049
85Ohio U.75120.901
86Colorado St76121.914
87Wake Forest48129.884
88SMU56125.156
89Rutgers56124.652
90Central Michigan66122.388
91Nevada48128.807
92South Alabama56122.045
93Troy66121.965
94Akron57126.894
95Memphis38129.042
96Louisiana-Monroe66122.594
97California111139.459
98Kansas39132.178
99Kentucky210134.519
100Kent St48126.249
101Virginia210134.246
102North Carolina St39130.766
103Texas St-San Marcos66117.874
104Wyoming57120.276
105Purdue111136.62
106South Florida29131.848
107Tulsa39127.148
108Connecticut29128.952
109Temple210126.487
110New Mexico39123.787
111Alabama-Birmingham210124.967
112Hawai`i111128.459
113Army38120.632
114Louisiana Tech48116.933
115New Mexico St210125.712
116Air Force210123.595
117Eastern Michigan210125.125
118Western Michigan111127.511
119Idaho111128.32
120Massachusetts111128.259
121UTEP210121.603
122Southern Miss111123.351
123Georgia St012125.892
124Florida Int'l111123.617
125Miami OH012125.444
ConferenceRatingSchedule
Pac-12140.793136.867
SEC139.579134.454
Big Ten136.92132.732
Big 12135.179131.845
ACC133.765130.164
AAC126.099125.622
Ind-FBS123.775127.964
MWC123.524124.524
MAC122.325124.379
Sun Belt120.974121.536
CUSA120.162122.207

 

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