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Bill Connelly’s Numb3rs (3/4)

Dan is Ty-less, but checks in with Football Study Hall’s Bill Connelly to talk the latest college football metrics and what they tell us about the current crop of college football players and teams and where numbers are headed in the future as we constantly try to learn more.

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Show Summary

On today’s show, Dan flies solo while Ty is off working at his mysterious day job.

Bill Connelly from Football Study Hall and Football Outsiders stops by to keep Dan from being lonely, but mostly to break down the numbers from the previous college football season.

Connelly starts off explaining the F+ rankings he uses on the site to determine offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency.

Next he gets into some of the things he found surprising after watching quarterback tape from the 2012 season. A few of the nuggets: One third of Geno Smith’s completed passes were  to players behind the line of scrimmage, Connor Shaw slings the ball downfield about once every five passes and Matt Barkley has a below average completion percentage in throws greater than 25 yards.

The talk shifts toward the NFL draft and how one applies this information in the draft process. Connelly breaks down the pundit-favorite term “arm strength” and what the experts really mean when they throw that phrase around.

Connelly discusses what role luck plays in college football and how recovering fumbles and picking off passes, as opposed to batting down balls, can really swing a season a few games one way or the other. He identifies the lucky and unlucky squads of 2012, and touches on how Bill Snyder and Kansas State defied the numbers, lucking out for two successful campaigns.

He also hits on his favorite command in Excel, favorite statistic, least favorite statistic, and which teams were underrated and overrated according to the numbers in the 2012 season.

Dan closes out the show by posing to Connelly the awkward hypothetical of the evening: You’re an 18-year-old and you can have a romantic rendezvous with an unobtainable adolescent crush or the “hot” celebrity of your day. The catch is, your performance will be analyzed by Bill Snyder. Do you still do it?

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The Solid Verbal is the best podcast for college football. Because you don’t just love college football, you live it.